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Crypto Weekly Outlook: November 1, 2021



The overall crypto market has remained relatively stable since last week, hovering around the $2.6T area, sitting at $2.65T as of this writing. “Uptober” has ended and November has begun. Both heavyweights Bitcoin and Ethereum saw new all-time highs made last month with ETH claiming its new high last week. And as seasoned investors know, rising prices do tend to be followed by rising prices - for a time at least. Additionally, the altcoin market capitalization reached a new high last week, illustrating that although Bitcoin may have led the charge, it’s not the only factor driving the market higher. The dog meme craze and the “metaverse” linked cryptos have also been lifting up the market.


Bitcoin (BTC) had its third successive weekly close and its first monthly close above the psychologically important $60K level - a big win for the BTC technicals. It finished October with nearly 40% gains. October has been a historically strong month for BTC. Since 2013, BTC has finished in the green in seven of the past nine October’s, while averaging 24% monthly gains. November has been even better historically. Since 2013, it has finished in the green in six of the past eight Novembers - with an average monthly return of 66%. Granted, the average monthly gain in November was helped a lot by its monster run in 2013, but it’s safe to say that BTC normally does quite well in November. Even prominent (and highly accurate) crypto analyst PlanB is predicting a November closing price of $98K according to his infamous S2F model.


Aiding the bullish case even more, Kraken exchange just put out a report highlighting that BTC whales have increased their collective holdings by around 0.25% since early October to reach $720B. The report also noted that the number of Bitcoin whales has risen by 1.6% in the same timeframe. These whales also aren’t moving their BTC to centralized exchanges indicating that they are choosing to hodl. And it’s not just the whales, most of the miners are hodling too.


What else can help the bullish narrative? Well, according to Glassnode, Bitcoin reserves across exchanges have hit a three-year low, highlighting the lack of circulating supply. Bitcoin will also undergo its eighth consecutive positive difficulty adjustment this week, strengthening the network. Where is the risk this week then? Well, the Bitcoin leverage ratio is still elevated, meaning a shakeout is still in the cards. The price to watch is the 20-day EMA of $59,679 as well as the key $60K level. Assuming the price stays above these levels, a re-test of the all-time high at $67K is likely. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,000.



Ethereum (ETH) had a very eventful previous week. It made a new all-time high at $4,450 and it recorded its first ever deflationary week with a net issuance of minus 59 ETH. As we noted in last week’s Crypto Market Weekly Summary, “ETH’s daily net issuance has been on a disinflationary path since the EIP-1559 was implemented in August.” If Ethereum fully transitions from a disinflationary path to a deflationary one - expect increased ETH scarcity and major ETH price appreciation. Investors should carefully watch the net issuance numbers going forward. Key price levels to be aware of this week include support at the 20-day EMA of $4,010. On the resistance side, the all-time high at $4,450 needs to be cleared before moving on to the $5K level. However, if the $4K area does not hold, the next support is present at $3,888. As of this writing, ETH is trading at $4,300.



Axie Infinity (AXS), the NFT/game-based crypto is one to watch this week as well. Jeffrey Zirlin, one of Axie Infinity’s co-founder’s will be one of the main speakers at this week’s NFT.NYC - the leading annual NFT event. It runs from November 1 - November 4. AXS is currently trading at $136.



Digital fintech platform Coti (COTI) should also be on investors’ radar. It announced that it is finally ready to launch its mainnet 2.0 after being in development for more than a year. The upgrade will go live on November 2, 2021, at 2 PM UTC. It will improve scalability and speed. Crypto analyst “Capo” is quite bullish on COTI’s prospects, giving it a minimum target of $1.70. COTI is currently trading at $0.61



Ripple's XRP should also not be ignored. According to Santiment, XRP's number of addresses as well as social media mentions have been increasing, while the price has been stagnating - a divergence that usually leads to price increases. Regarding the ongoing SEC-Ripple court case, the court extended the discovery deadline to January 14, 2022. Despite the continuing SEC headache, XRP has still been making gains and making its presence known in many international markets. As of this writing, XRP is trading at $1.09. Key support is present at $1.06 and $0.96, while resistance is present at $1.20. If XRP makes a move above $1.20, the next stop is $2.



What's next for Shiba Inu (SHIB)? It's now in the #9 spot in the market cap rankings, above Dogecoin with a market cap just above $39B. It recently broke above resistance at $0.000066 to sit at the current price of $0.000071. The next resistance is its former all-time high. Interestingly, starting today, November 1, Binance will open trading for the SHIB/DOGE trading pair so the competing packs can battle directly. Traders should also be aware of the recent rumors that Tesla will accept payment in SHIB due to an analysis of the Tesla website source code, in which $SHIB is shown as a payment type. Tesla has given no comment.



Crypto.com (CRO) has some upcoming developments of note. On November 8, it will launch the Cronos chain, an EVM chain that will run in parallel to Crypto.com’s existing blockchain. Its purpose is to scale its DeFi ecosystem allowing developers to port DApps from Ethereum and EVM-compatible chains. The launch should not be slept on.



Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) had some recent news as well. On October 29, MoonPay, the global payments solution for cryptocurrency and The HBAR Foundation announced that US customers in most states can now purchase the Hedera network’s native token, HBAR, through MoonPay’s platform. MoonPay already supported HBAR for users outside the U.S., but this new U.S.-related support might not be fully digested.



Secret Network (SCRT) shouldn't be slept on either. The privacy-focused blockchain will launch its most comprehensive mainnet upgrade to date, Supernova. The launch is scheduled for November 9. The upgrade will connect Secret Network with blockchains across the Cosmos ecosystem (in addition to bridges to Ethereum, BSC, Monero, Terra, Polkadot, and more). It also just announced that it will soon support generative NFTs with the inaugural mint in late November - very positive news. SCRT has performed very impressively over the past month, gaining almost 400%. As of this writing, it's trading at $9.15 with resistance found between $13.90 and $14.25



Many conferences are happening over the next two weeks. On November 5-6, the Cosmosverse conference will take place in Lisbon. The head of institutional business at AAVE, Ajit Tripathi, will be a main speaker. Additionally, the Ripple Swell conference is scheduled for November 9-10. The founder of COMP, Robert Leshner, will be a main speaker. Investors should be aware.



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